Market corrections happen about once every 19 months – and we’re at 19
After the stock market’s growth in 2021, many believe a pullback (or even a correction) may be a healthy thing. Such a drop is not horribly painful, by historical standards, and smart investors can seek to cushion such a fall.
Why is a market correction beneficial? Because it prevents another bubble from forming. Bubbles occur when stock prices get clearly out of line with the earnings potential of the underlying companies. We saw the consequence of that in the awful 2000-02 and 2008-09 market wipeouts, when some people lost half their wealth or more.
Certainly, market corrections never feel healthy when they occur. People get fearful as the market declines, the media fan the flames by giving investors reason after reason to be afraid, and worries that this is the beginning of the next crash begin to develop.
But did you know that since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced an intra-year peak-to-trough pullback of 5% or worse in 67 out of 70 years? So roughly 93% of the time, a 5% correction has taken place from 1950-2021.
While many investors admit that a 5% pullback is manageably unpleasant, concerns expand when the market decline hits 10%.
When is the Next Correction Coming?
Here is what investors need to remember: the S&P 500 has nearly doubled in value since the market turmoil in March 2020. What has not happened since that time, however, is a selloff of at least 10% - that’s the definition of a market correction.
Further, in 29 of the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has experienced a 10% correction. And since 1928, market corrections happen about once every 19 months. But guess when the last market correction occurred?
That would be 19 months ago.
How to Prepare for a Correction
Are you thinking: “I don’t think I can stomach a loss of 10%? Then that’s where the wisdom of diversification becomes apparent.
Remember that the data above represent the historical performance of the S&P 500, an index composed of 100% stocks.
A capable financial advisor ensures you have an asset allocation mix of stocks, bonds and cash that represents your tolerance for risk. Consequently, your portfolio likely isn’t 100% stocks. In fact, the appropriate allocation for an average investor approaching or already enjoying retirement might be closer to only 50% stocks. This means that on average, your portfolio should decline only half as much as the S&P 500 during market downturns.
So proper diversification can bring you back to the “manageably unpleasant” range. But if not, you may need to reevaluate your risk tolerance to ensure you are not exposing your nest egg to a larger loss than you can endure. Although the recent market pullback will produce lots of fear, we’ve been here before.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
GENESIS Wealth Management LLC is not a registered Broker/Dealer and is not affiliated with LPL Financial.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax planning or legal advice. We suggest that you consult with a qualified tax or legal advisor.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
This article was prepared by Financial Media Exchange, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.